IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
SIU Edwardsville
Ohio Valley
2018-19

Overall
Predictive Rating	-9.7	#320
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	71.1	#122
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-4.7	#298

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-5.0	#326

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	0.8%	1.5%	0.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.6	15.5	15.7

.500 or above	14.4%	27.0%	9.6%
.500 or above in Conference	20.4%	29.5%	16.9%
Conference Champion	0.8%	1.8%	0.4%
Last Place in Conference	26.4%	17.7%	29.8%

First Four	0.5%	0.9%	0.4%
First Round	0.6%	1.0%	0.4%
Second Round	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Pacific (Home) - 27.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0.0 - 0.3	0.0 - 0.3
Quad 1b	0.0 - 0.9	0.0 - 1.2
Quad 2	0.2 - 2.7	0.3 - 3.9
Quad 3	1.3 - 6.3	1.5 - 10.2
Quad 4	7.5 - 8.8	9.0 - 19.0

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 06, 2018	168	Pacific	L	68-77	28%
Nov 10, 2018	194	Winthrop	L	73-81	33%
Nov 21, 2018	120	@ Valparaiso	L	66-79	8%
Nov 25, 2018	330	Incarnate Word	W	75-73	66%
Nov 28, 2018	270	@ Western Illinois	L	70-74	28%
Dec 01, 2018	104	Southern Illinois	L	64-78	17%
Dec 17, 2018	202	@ Drake	L	70-77	18%
Dec 19, 2018	191	@ Washington St.	L	71-79	17%
Dec 22, 2018	342	Cal St. Northridge	W	72-68	65%
Dec 23, 2018	172	Northern Colorado	L	71-80	21%
Jan 03, 2019	308	Southeast Missouri St.	L	75-76	58%
Jan 05, 2019	298	@ Eastern Illinois	L	68-70	34%
Jan 10, 2019	287	@ Tennessee Tech	L	72-75	31%
Jan 12, 2019	146	@ Jacksonville St.	L	64-75	12%
Jan 17, 2019	188	Austin Peay	L	71-79	33%
Jan 19, 2019	151	Murray St.	L	66-77	26%
Jan 24, 2019	308	@ Southeast Missouri St.	L	75-76	37%
Jan 26, 2019	285	@ Tennessee Martin	L	68-71	31%
Jan 31, 2019	224	Morehead St.	L	70-76	41%
Feb 02, 2019	273	Eastern Kentucky	L	72-76	47%
Feb 07, 2019	188	@ Austin Peay	L	71-79	17%
Feb 09, 2019	151	@ Murray St.	L	66-77	13%
Feb 14, 2019	298	Eastern Illinois	L	68-70	53%
Feb 16, 2019	285	Tennessee Martin	L	68-71	50%
Feb 21, 2019	259	@ Tennessee St.	L	65-69	29%
Feb 23, 2019	109	@ Belmont	L	67-80	9%
Feb 28, 2019	287	Tennessee Tech	L	72-75	50%
Mar 02, 2019	146	Jacksonville St.	L	64-75	26%
Projected Record						9.0 - 19.0	6.0 - 12.0

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Ohio Valley Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.1	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0			0.8	1st
2nd											0.0	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.0				1.3	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.3	0.8	1.0	0.3	0.1	0.0					2.6	3rd
4th									0.0	0.3	1.4	1.3	0.7	0.2							3.9	4th
5th								0.0	0.4	2.0	2.2	0.9	0.1								5.5	5th
6th							0.0	0.5	2.3	3.2	1.4	0.1									7.5	6th
7th						0.0	0.5	2.7	3.7	1.6	0.2										8.7	7th
8th					0.0	0.4	3.1	5.0	2.3	0.3	0.0										11.1	8th
9th				0.0	0.5	3.3	5.4	2.6	0.4												12.2	9th
10th			0.1	0.8	3.5	5.8	3.2	0.5	0.0												13.8	10th
11th		0.2	1.3	4.3	5.7	2.8	0.6	0.0													15.0	11th
12th	1.2	3.8	5.5	4.7	2.0	0.4	0.0														17.7	12th

Total	1.2	4.1	6.9	9.9	11.7	12.6	12.8	11.3	9.1	7.4	5.5	3.2	2.1	1.0	0.8	0.3	0.1	0.0				Total

Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0
17-1	100.0%	0.0		0.0	0.0
16-2	86.4%	0.1		0.1	0.0
15-3	66.9%	0.2		0.1	0.1	0.0
14-4	39.3%	0.3		0.1	0.1	0.0
13-5	10.8%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
12-6	2.1%	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.0%
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	0.8%	0.8		0.4	0.3	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1	0.0%		50.0%	50.0%		14.9													0.0			0.0		0.0
16-2	0.1%		42.4%	42.4%		14.0															0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1
15-3	0.3%		19.4%	19.4%		14.5														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.3
14-4	0.8%		12.8%	12.8%		15.4															0.0	0.1	0.0	0.7
13-5	1.0%		7.8%	7.8%		15.2														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.9
12-6	2.1%		4.2%	4.2%		15.7																0.0	0.1	2.0
11-7	3.2%		4.7%	4.7%		16.0																0.0	0.2	3.1
10-8	5.5%		1.4%	1.4%		16.0																0.0	0.1	5.4
9-9	7.4%		1.5%	1.5%		16.0																	0.1	7.3
8-10	9.1%		0.8%	0.8%		16.0																	0.1	9.0
7-11	11.3%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	11.3
6-12	12.8%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	12.8
5-13	12.6%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	12.6
4-14	11.7%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	11.7
3-15	9.9%																							9.9
2-16	6.9%																							6.9
1-17	4.1%																							4.1
0-18	1.2%																							1.2

Total	100%		0.8%	0.8%	0.0%	15.6													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.6	99.2		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.3%